In False Prophets, Bad Economics, Bjorn Lomborg pooh-poohs headlines predicting extreme environmental changes caused by global warming. Megadroughts? Famine? The shutting down of the Gulf Stream? He believes such headlines are "fiction, the stuff of Hollywood imaginations." In fact, he simply does not know what lies ahead. Neither he nor anyone else really knows how the planet will react to mankind's continued abuse. But based on a growing body of data, such possibilities cannot be ruled out.
He then cites a U.N. projection for the year 2100 as justification for essentially ignoring the Kyoto Protocol and doing nothing to fight global warming in this century, and instead concentrating on poverty reduction: According to the U.N., developing countries will be two to four times richer in 2100 than they are today. By Lomborg's logic, that means that a country like Bangladesh -- one that is vulnerable to rising sea levels -- will be a "rich Netherlands" by 2100 if we fund development projects today. Therefore it will be able to take care of its own global warming problems. This raises two questions:
- Why must Bangladesh pay for the environmental problems caused by others?
- In today's rapidly changing world, how can Lomborg be so certain about a projection for the next century? Has he considered the virtually unpredictable changes that will be brought about by -- to name just one example -- the transition to a post-oil-based economy, which will almost certainly take place within the next 100 years?
Setting priorities is a good thing. And it is true that global poverty could be eliminated for far less than what is needed to address global warming. But we cannot ignore global warming just because it might not make economic sense today.
Lomborg's "steady as she goes" attitude is reminiscent of the Bush Administration's "we need more data" stalling tactic. The truth is, we need to start addressing global warming issues now. The sooner we begin, the less painful the necessary changes will be. Repeatedly claiming that everything is OK will not make it so. And above all, we need to demand vision, honesty and courage from our leaders to guide us.
